63% More Sellers Than Buyers; 1 in 5 Homes Gets a Price Cut; Why a BAD Mortgage Market Can Be a GREAT Buying Market
63% More Sellers Than Buyers; 1 in 5 Homes Gets a Price Cut; Why a BAD Mortgage Market Can Be a GREAT Buying Market
October 26, 2026 | Michael Belfor
Mortgage rates are ugly.
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There. I said it.
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Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate finally dipped last week — from 7.40% to 7.32% — but borrowing costs are still near a three-year high. AP News
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And yet, buried underneath all the terrible affordability headlines is something buyers have not had in years:
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Leverage.
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Redfin says there are now 63% more sellers than buyers across the 50 largest U.S. metros.
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Realtor.com says about 21% of listings had a price reduction in September — the highest share in four years. AP News
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That is a very different housing market from 2021.
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And for the buyer who can actually afford today’s payment, it may be a much better one.
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I. SELLERS ARE FINALLY NEGOTIATING AGAIN
For years, buyers were told:
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Highest and best.
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Waive contingencies.
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Cover the appraisal gap.
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Take it or leave it.
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Now?
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Some sellers are sitting.
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Some are cutting prices.
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Some are paying closing costs.
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Some are making repairs.
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And some are helping buy down the buyer’s mortgage rate. AP News
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That does NOT mean every property is a bargain.
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A great house in San Francisco, Marin, Orange County or another supply-constrained neighborhood can still get multiple offers.
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But the average seller has a problem today that was almost nonexistent a few years ago:
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They actually need to convince someone to buy the house.
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That changes the conversation.
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II. A $20,000 CREDIT CAN MATTER MORE THAN A $20,000 PRICE CUT
This is where buyers and agents need to stop thinking only about price.
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Suppose a seller is willing to give up $20,000 to get the deal done.
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You could reduce the purchase price by $20,000.
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Fine.
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But depending on the loan program and transaction, that same $20,000 might be more useful as:
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Closing-cost assistance.
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A temporary rate buydown.
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A permanent rate buydown.
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Or a combination.
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Why?
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Because a $20,000 lower purchase price usually does NOT lower the monthly payment by $20,000 worth of pain.
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Using the concession strategically can sometimes have a much larger near-term impact on cash-to-close or monthly payment.
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That is why I keep telling agents:
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Do not just negotiate the house.
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Negotiate the financing too.
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III. THE “WAIT FOR RATES TO DROP” CROWD MAY MISS THE BEST PART
Here is the contrarian part.
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If mortgage rates eventually fall meaningfully, what do you think happens?
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More buyers come back.
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Competition increases.
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Sellers get less generous.
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Price reductions shrink.
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And the house that has been sitting for 50 days suddenly has three offers.
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Nobody knows exactly when that happens.
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And I would NEVER tell someone to buy an unaffordable home because “you can refinance later.”
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The payment needs to work today.
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But if the payment DOES work today?
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I would rather negotiate against one buyer at 7% than ten buyers at 6%.
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That is the tradeoff nobody talks about enough.
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A lower mortgage rate is wonderful.
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A lower rate plus another bidding war may not be.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
Today’s mortgage market is painful.
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Today’s buying market can be very different.
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We now have 63% more sellers than buyers across the largest U.S. metros.
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Roughly one in five listings is getting a price reduction. AP News
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And sellers are increasingly helping with closing costs, repairs and financing incentives.
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So stop asking only:
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“When will rates come down?”
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Ask:
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How long has THIS home been sitting?
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How motivated is THIS seller?
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What concessions can we get?
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Should we use those dollars for price, closing costs or the rate?
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And does the payment work today?
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Because a terrible mortgage market can create a surprisingly good negotiation market.
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And if rates eventually improve?
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Great.
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Then we look at the refinance.
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ABOUT MICHAEL BELFOR
Michael Belfor is a Branch Manager and Loan Originator with American Pacific Mortgage, bringing approximately 24 years of mortgage lending experience.
An APM President’s Club and Top 1% originator since 2017, Michael helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate investors and real estate professionals navigate conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, Non-QM, DSCR, TIC, condo, construction and other mortgage financing solutions.
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Michael Belfor | American Pacific Mortgage
Direct: 415-233-4235 | Orange County: 949-577-6449
Website: www.mikebelfor.com
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63% More Sellers Than Buyers — Why Buyers Have Leverage in 2026
There are now 63% more sellers than buyers across major U.S. metros and roughly 1 in 5 listings has cut its price. Here is why today’s difficult mortgage market may create better negotiating opportunities.
buyer leverage 2026, seller concessions, price reductions, California housing market, mortgage rate buydown, homebuyer negotiation, seller credit
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