San Francisco Waited 25 Years for These Homes: What Candlestick Point Says About California’s Housing Problem
California needs more housing.
That statement is repeated by politicians, developers, economists, real estate professionals and frustrated homebuyers throughout the state.
But there is another part of California’s housing problem that gets less attention:
How long does it actually take to build the housing we say we need?
Candlestick Point in San Francisco may be one of the best examples.
The former home of the San Francisco 49ers and Giants is finally moving toward becoming something completely different: a massive new mixed-use neighborhood planned to eventually include approximately 7,200 homes.
The remarkable part?
Versions of this redevelopment have been discussed and planned for roughly a quarter century.
That raises a bigger question for California:
Maybe our housing shortage isn’t only about what we build. Maybe it’s also about how long it takes us to build it.
Remember Candlestick Park?
For generations of Bay Area sports fans, Candlestick needs almost no introduction.
The stadium hosted the San Francisco Giants from 1960 through 1999 and the San Francisco 49ers from 1971 through the 2013 season.
And then there was the weather.
Wind.
Fog.
Cold.
More wind.
Anyone who attended a night game at Candlestick probably remembers bringing approximately three more layers of clothing than seemed reasonable.
The stadium was demolished in 2015.
But the idea of redeveloping the larger Candlestick Point area goes back much further.
Plans evolved through different developers, economic environments and political administrations. The project also had to contend with infrastructure requirements, environmental issues, financing challenges and changing real estate markets.
Now, decades later, infrastructure work is finally moving forward.
What Is Planned at Candlestick Point?
The vision is much larger than simply replacing a stadium with apartment buildings.
The broader Candlestick Point redevelopment is planned to eventually include approximately:
7,200 homes
2.8 million square feet of office space
Retail and restaurants
A hotel
Parks and open space
New streets
Transportation infrastructure
Waterfront improvements
Essentially, this isn't one housing development.
It's the creation of an entirely new San Francisco neighborhood.
The initial infrastructure work is expected to prepare seven blocks capable of supporting roughly 700 homes, with approximately 41% of those units planned as affordable housing, according to reporting on the project.
That distinction matters.
When people hear that California needs 7,200 homes, it can sound as simple as hiring construction crews and putting up buildings.
It isn't.
Before thousands of people can live somewhere, the infrastructure to support those people has to exist.
Roads.
Utilities.
Water.
Sewer.
Transportation.
Public spaces.
And all of that has to be planned, financed, approved and constructed.
So Why Did It Take So Long?
This is where the Candlestick story becomes more interesting than another article complaining about California bureaucracy.
There wasn't one single reason.
Large developments can be affected by multiple forces simultaneously.
Infrastructure
Building thousands of homes on a massive redevelopment site requires enormous upfront infrastructure investment.
You're not simply connecting one house to an existing street.
You're effectively creating pieces of a city.
Environmental Issues
Large California development sites can involve complicated environmental reviews, remediation and regulatory requirements.
Some of those safeguards exist for very legitimate reasons.
The challenge is finding a process that protects communities and the environment without making desperately needed housing practically impossible to deliver.
Financing
A project of this scale requires enormous amounts of capital.
And financing something that may take decades is fundamentally different from financing a small housing development.
Interest rates change.
Construction costs change.
Investors change.
Developers change.
Economic assumptions change.
Economic Cycles
Think about everything that has happened during the lifespan of this project.
The dot-com crash.
The housing boom.
The 2008 financial crisis.
The Great Recession.
Another enormous real estate expansion.
COVID-19.
Historic inflation.
Rapidly rising interest rates.
And now another changing economic environment.
A 25-year development timeline almost guarantees that a project will experience multiple economic cycles.
The Pandemic
COVID changed the economics of real estate development dramatically.
Office demand changed.
Construction costs moved.
Supply chains were disrupted.
Financing conditions changed.
And developers throughout California had to reconsider what kinds of projects made financial sense.
Candlestick Point wasn't operating in a vacuum.
California’s Housing Shortage Is Still Enormous
Here's why this matters beyond San Francisco.
California's housing affordability problem isn't theoretical.
According to the California Association of REALTORS®, only 19% of California households could afford the state's median-priced existing single-family home during the second quarter of 2026.
The statewide median price was approximately $916,750.
Under C.A.R.'s assumptions, a household needed approximately $228,400 in annual income to qualify for that median-priced home.
That's extraordinary.
And while mortgage rates absolutely affect affordability, California's housing problem cannot be solved through interest rates alone.
There is a much more basic economic issue underneath it:
Supply and demand.
Millions of people want to live in some of the most desirable parts of California.
We haven't consistently built enough housing in many of those places.
Yesterday’s Housing Problem Connects Directly to This One
I recently wrote about another California housing issue: the competition between primary-residence buyers, second-home owners and short-term-rental investors.
That conversation raises the question:
Who gets to use the homes California already has?
Candlestick raises the other half of the equation:
Why aren't we creating more homes faster?
Those issues are connected.
We can debate Airbnb regulations.
We can debate institutional investors.
We can debate second homes.
We can debate mortgage rates.
But ultimately, California cannot redistribute its way out of every housing problem.
At some point, more housing has to exist.
Why 7,200 New Homes Matter
Seven thousand two hundred homes won't solve San Francisco's housing affordability problem.
But they matter.
Every new housing unit represents another place where someone can potentially live.
And increasing supply at different price points can create movement throughout the housing market.
Someone moves into a new apartment.
Their previous apartment becomes available.
Someone else moves into that unit.
Another household moves somewhere else.
Economists sometimes describe this as housing "filtering."
Housing markets aren't perfectly efficient, and new construction doesn't instantly make expensive cities affordable.
But adding supply creates options.
Not adding supply guarantees scarcity.
Affordable Housing Is Part of the Candlestick Plan
The first phase is particularly interesting because approximately 41% of the roughly 700 homes supported by the initial infrastructure work are planned as affordable housing.
California's affordability problem requires multiple approaches.
Market-rate housing matters.
Affordable housing matters.
Starter homes matter.
Condos matter.
ADUs matter.
Rental housing matters.
The state doesn't need one type of housing.
It needs more housing across the spectrum.
That's one reason I've argued that California's disappearing starter-home market deserves more attention.
For many buyers today, the first rung of the ownership ladder may no longer be a detached three-bedroom house.
It could be a condo.
A townhome.
An ADU arrangement.
A duplex.
Or a smaller home farther from the coast.
Housing policy has to acknowledge how dramatically the market has changed.
There Is a Mortgage Side to This Too
Housing supply and mortgage financing are usually discussed separately.
They shouldn't be.
You can create the greatest mortgage program in America, but it doesn't help much if there aren't enough homes available to buy.
Conversely, building housing doesn't automatically make it affordable if financing costs, insurance, HOA dues and property taxes push the monthly payment beyond what households can manage.
That's why buyers should look beyond simply asking:
"What's the mortgage rate?"
The better question is:
"What is the complete cost of owning this particular property?"
That includes the mortgage payment, taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues when applicable, maintenance and other property-specific expenses.
A lower purchase price doesn't always mean a lower total housing cost.
California Has to Get Better at Building
Candlestick Point shouldn't simply become another argument where one side says California regulations are terrible and the other says every regulation is necessary.
Reality is more complicated.
Building an entire neighborhood on a complicated San Francisco site legitimately takes time.
Environmental protections matter.
Infrastructure matters.
Community planning matters.
Affordable housing matters.
Financial feasibility matters.
But 25 years should still make us ask questions.
Because California simultaneously says:
We desperately need housing.
Housing is unaffordable.
Young families can't buy.
Rent is too expensive.
Workers can't live near their jobs.
And then some major housing projects take decades to become reality.
Those two realities eventually collide.
Candlestick Point Is Becoming Something New
For Bay Area residents who remember Candlestick Park, the transformation will be particularly strange.
A place associated with Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Willie Mays, the Giants, the 49ers, brutal wind and freezing night games could eventually become home to thousands of people.
Kids could grow up there.
People could walk to restaurants there.
Residents could use waterfront parks there.
Thousands of people could simply call it:
home.
That's pretty remarkable.
But perhaps the biggest lesson from Candlestick isn't what is being built.
It's how long it took to get here.
California's housing debate usually focuses on prices, mortgage rates, investors or zoning.
Maybe we need to spend more time talking about another number:
Time.
Because if California knows it needs millions of additional homes over the coming decades, waiting another quarter century for major projects isn't going to make the math any easier.
Thinking About Buying in the Bay Area?
The Bay Area remains one of the most complicated housing markets in the country, particularly when it comes to condos, TIC properties, jumbo financing and unique properties.
At the Belfor Team at American Pacific Mortgage, we help buyers evaluate conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, TIC, condo and other financing strategies throughout San Francisco and the greater Bay Area.
The objective isn't simply getting someone approved.
It's understanding the property, the financing and the complete monthly cost before making an offer.
Michael Belfor
Branch Manager – Loan Originator
American Pacific Mortgage
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