A New Month, the Same Question — Where Are Rates Headed?

October opens with the same debate that’s defined much of 2025: are mortgage rates finally heading lower, or are we stuck in place?

Here’s what we know heading into the new month:

1. Fed Cut, Limited Impact.

The Fed’s September cut lowered the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%, its first move in almost a year. But mortgage rates didn’t drop sharply — because the 10-Year Treasury and bond markets carry more weight than Fed announcements.

2. Treasuries Still Set the Tone.

The 10-Year yield has been stuck between 4.10–4.20% for weeks. Until inflation data breaks lower, that range is likely to hold — keeping mortgage rates in the mid-6s. It’s the bond market, not the Fed, that tells us when change is coming.

3. Small Windows Matter.

In September, we saw brief dips that gave prepared buyers quarter-percent savings. Those opportunities didn’t last long, but they added up to thousands in lifetime interest savings for the clients who were ready to lock.

4. October Outlook.

Upcoming inflation reports and jobs data will set the tone. If inflation stays flat, expect stability. If it surprises lower, yields could break below the 4.0% floor — finally opening the door for broader rate relief.

If not, October may look a lot like September: quiet on the surface, meaningful for those positioned well.

The bottom line: waiting for a “big drop” is risky. Markets reward readiness, not prediction.

October could deliver opportunities, but only for those who have files complete, strike rates in place, and the flexibility to act quickly.

A new month brings the same question — but the same answer too: preparation is the best strategy.