Mid-August Market Check — Why Rates Feel Stuck (and What to Do About It)

It’s mid-August, and many buyers and homeowners are asking the same question:

“Why do rates feel like they’re going nowhere?”

On the surface, mortgage rates haven’t moved much in weeks. But the story underneath is far more active — and it explains why things feel “stuck” right now.

The Push and Pull

• Inflation: CPI ticked up to 2.7% last month. That’s not runaway inflation, but it’s enough to keep the Fed cautious.

• Jobs: Hiring has cooled, but not collapsed. That leaves the bond market in limbo, waiting for clearer signals.

• Tariffs: New trade headlines are adding upward pressure on prices, keeping investors wary.

This tug-of-war is holding the 10-Year Treasury yield in the 4.20–4.30% range — and mortgage rates are stuck with it.

Why It Matters

This “range-bound” market means you won’t see big drops unless data surprises lower. The Fed is expected to cut in September, but markets have already priced that in. A cut alone won’t move mortgage rates much unless inflation clearly trends down.

Translation: Don’t wait for a huge drop. Watch for small windows instead.

Strategy That Works in a Stuck Market

• Set a strike rate: Know your number, so if rates dip briefly, you’re ready to lock.

• Have docs in early: Rate windows don’t wait for paperwork.

• Leverage flexible programs: DSCR, self-employed, lender-paid buydowns, and DPA — all of which can close in 15 days or less — give you options when others hesitate.

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t frozen — they’re coiling. And when they move, the window will be short.

The best strategy isn’t to wait for perfect. It’s to be prepared so you can act the moment the opportunity comes.

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