The Market Feels Stuck — But Here’s Why It Isn’t

It’s easy to think mortgage rates are “stuck” right now. After all, they’ve been hovering in the same general range for weeks. Buyers are frustrated. Homeowners waiting for the perfect refi moment are frustrated. And agents are asking, “When will things finally shift?”

But the truth is: the market isn’t stuck — it’s coiling.

What’s Happening Beneath the Surface

Rates are being held in place by two opposing forces:

• Inflation Data: CPI ticked up to 2.7% last month. If it stays elevated, the Fed will remain cautious — keeping pressure on the 10-Year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

• Slowing Jobs Growth: Employment data has softened, which points toward less economic momentum — normally a rate-friendly signal.

• Tariff Concerns: New tariff headlines are adding inflation risk, and markets hate the uncertainty.

This tug-of-war is why rates have felt “stuck.” But when the pressure finally releases, the move could be sharp.

What We’re Watching

The 10-Year Treasury yield remains the key. Breaking below 4.00% would likely spark a real rate improvement — but so far, every test has bounced back. That’s why last month’s brief dip created a locking opportunity that didn’t last long.

The market is coiling, waiting for the next piece of data to push it one way or the other.

What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners

• Don’t wait for perfect. Windows are short. By the time you see them, they’re gone.

• Be ready early. Have your docs in, file underwritten, and strike rate set.

• Use the tools. DSCR, self-employed loans, lender-paid buydowns, and DPA are still closing in 15 days or less — even in this market.

Bottom Line

The market isn’t frozen. It’s waiting — and when it moves, it will move quickly.

The best strategy isn’t to predict the exact day. It’s to be prepared so that when the window opens, you’re already positioned to take advantage of it.

That’s what we’re doing for our clients right now.