Treasury Watch — Why the 10-Year Matters Most

Ask any lender what drives mortgage rates, and you’ll hear the same answer: watch the 10-Year Treasury.

Here’s why it matters:

• Mortgage-backed securities are priced in relation to Treasuries.

• The 10-Year yield reflects inflation expectations and investor demand.

• When Treasuries rise, mortgage rates almost always follow.

  
  

This month, the 10-Year has been hovering around 4.10–4.20%. That’s become the “floor” for rates. Until inflation data breaks meaningfully lower, we’re unlikely to see Treasuries (and mortgage rates) fall much further.

For buyers and homeowners, that means strategy matters more than prediction. You can’t control the Treasury yield. But you can control whether your file is underwritten, whether your strike rate is in place, and whether you’re ready to lock when markets move.

If you want to know where mortgage rates are headed, don’t just read Fed headlines. Watch the 10-Year. It’s the clearest signal we have.