Why Waiting for Lower Rates Could Cost You More Than You Think

This week, we saw a short-lived improvement in mortgage rates — and we acted fast, locking 12 refinance loans for clients who had been waiting for the right moment.

Here’s the thing: for some people, that “target rate” they’ve been hoping for is already here. But many are still holding out, hoping rates will drop even further.

Here’s what the data says about that strategy:

1. The Fed is likely cutting rates in September — but it’s already priced in.

Markets expect at least one rate cut next month, and maybe another later this year. But lenders have already factored those moves into today’s pricing. A Fed cut alone probably won’t lower mortgage rates much more than where they are now.

2. Inflation is the wild card.

CPI inflation came in at 2.5% in June and 2.7% in July. If that number holds or rises, the bond market could push rates higher quickly — even with Fed cuts in play.

3. Short windows close fast.

In October 2024, we saw a small rate dip that lasted only weeks before reversing. This week’s improvement could be just as brief. Waiting for a bigger drop could mean missing the window entirely.

Bottom line:If today’s rate meets your goal — or even gets close — the safer move is to lock it in rather than gamble on an uncertain future.

That’s exactly why we set up our Strike Rate system: so our clients can lock quickly when opportunities open and avoid being caught on the wrong side of the market.

If you’ve been waiting for rates to hit your target, let’s talk today. 

Even a few days can make a big difference in this market.