85% of San Francisco Homes Sold Over Asking; Condos Are Waking Up; Why a Preapproval May Not Be Enough
Everyone keeps talking about a slow housing market.
San Francisco apparently didn’t get the memo.
August data from Compass shows 85% of San Francisco single-family home sales closed above asking price, while 54% of condos sold above asking. The median single-family price reached approximately $1.855 million, and the condo median was about $1.233 million.
So yes, the broader Bay Area cooled seasonally.
But “cooling” and “easy for buyers” are definitely not the same thing.
I. SAN FRANCISCO IS DOING SAN FRANCISCO THINGS AGAIN
Across Northern California, August generally looked like a normal late-summer slowdown: fewer closings, more months of supply and more price reductions in many counties.
At the same time, competition was stronger than it was a year ago, with the percentage of homes selling above list increasing year over year across all 14 counties tracked by Compass.
San Francisco was the extreme example.
Single-family homes averaged a very different experience from condos, but both showed substantially more competition than last year.
That is important because buyers hear:
“The market is slowing.”
And translate it into:
“Cool. I can take my time and offer whatever I want.”
Not necessarily.
The correctly priced property in a desirable neighborhood can still attract multiple buyers very quickly.
Meanwhile, another property five blocks away can sit for weeks.
That is the California housing market in 2026.
There really isn’t one market anymore.
II. EVEN THE NINE BAY AREA COUNTIES ARE MOVING DIFFERENTLY
Recent August data showed home values rising month over month in all nine Bay Area counties, although the magnitude varied significantly.
San Francisco posted the largest monthly increase at about 1.8%, while San Mateo and Marin also moved higher. Alameda and Contra Costa were much more modest.
That is why broad national headlines can be nearly useless when you are actually making an offer.
A buyer in San Francisco may be worried about an aggressive bidding situation.
A condo buyer may have negotiating leverage on one building and almost none on another.
A Marin buyer can encounter a completely different market than someone looking in Oakland, Walnut Creek or Sonoma.
Real estate is hyper-local. Financing strategy needs to be hyper-local too.
III. HERE'S THE PART BUYERS MISS: YOUR FINANCING IS PART OF THE OFFER
Suppose two buyers offer roughly the same price.
Buyer A has a standard preapproval and needs a normal financing timeline.
Buyer B has already completed a full TBD underwriting approval before finding the property and can potentially offer a substantially shorter financing and closing timeline.
Those are not identical offers.
And when a seller has five, eight or ten offers sitting on the table, little differences suddenly become big differences.
This is one reason I like getting buyers fully underwritten before they find the house whenever the situation allows it.
We can review income, assets, credit and underwriting upfront rather than waiting until after the buyer is under contract.
Then, when the right property appears, we are working primarily on the property rather than starting the entire borrower approval from scratch.
We have closed California purchase transactions in extremely short timeframes when the file and property allowed it.
That does not mean every loan should close in eight or ten days.
It means buyers should know what is possible before they are competing for the house.
THE PART I WOULD NOT DO
I would not automatically tell every buyer:
“Go $100,000 over asking.”
The list price itself can be part of a marketing strategy.
Instead, I want to know:
What are comparable properties actually selling for?
How many offers are expected?
What does the appraisal risk look like?
How much liquidity does the buyer have?
And how strong can we make the financing portion of the offer?
Because sometimes the winning move isn't simply offering more money.
Sometimes it is making the seller more confident that your money will actually show up on time.
About Michael Belfor
Michael Belfor is a Branch Manager and Loan Originator with approximately 24 years of mortgage experience. He has been recognized in APM’s President’s Club and among the company’s Top 1% producers since 2017. Michael specializes in conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, down-payment assistance, self-employed and Non-QM financing, DSCR/investment loans, TICs, condos, renovation financing and other complex mortgage scenarios.
85% of San Francisco Homes Sold Over Asking | 2026 Bay Area Housing Market
San Francisco buyers are still competing in 2026. See what rising over-asking sales mean for buyers, condos, preapprovals and stronger financing strategies.
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