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The 10-Year Treasury Is Still the Key to Mortgage Rates

  • Writer: Michael Belfor
    Michael Belfor
  • Aug 14
  • 1 min read

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If you want to know where mortgage rates are headed, watch the 10-Year Treasury yield.


When the yield dips below key support levels — like 4.00% — mortgage-backed securities often follow, and mortgage rates improve.


But breaking below 4.00% has been tough in 2025. Inflation is sticky, jobs data is resilient, and tariff headlines are pushing yields higher.


That’s why last week’s dip was so rare — and why we moved quickly to lock.


Our focus now is on staying ready for the next test of that 4.00% level. If it happens, the window could be very short.


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