Home Sales Finally Rose; Inventory Hit a 7-Year High; Why Buyers May Have More Leverage Than They Think
For the first time since spring, existing-home sales moved higher.
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That sounds like good news.
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And it is — sort of.
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September existing-home sales increased 1.5% from August to an annualized pace of 3.99 million homes.
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But sales were still down 2.2% from a year earlier.
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At the same time, inventory climbed to 1.60 million homes — the highest level since November 2019. Reuters
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That combination tells us something important:
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The housing market is not booming.
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But it is finally giving some buyers more room to negotiate.
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I. SALES IMPROVED — BUT THE MARKET IS STILL SLOW
The National Association of Realtors reported that September sales increased 1.5% month over month.
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That was the first monthly increase since May. The Wall Street Journal
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But context matters.
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A lot of September closings came from contracts written earlier, when mortgage rates were lower than they are today.
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So I would not look at the sales increase and assume the housing market suddenly turned the corner.
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The bigger story is that the market remains slow.
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Existing-home sales have been hovering near historically weak levels for several years.
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That is not because nobody wants to buy a home.
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It is because affordability is still the biggest obstacle.
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II. INVENTORY IS FINALLY GIVING BUYERS OPTIONS
This is the part buyers should pay attention to.
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Housing inventory rose to 1.60 million units in September.
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That was up from August and up from a year earlier.
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Supply reached approximately 4.8 months. AP News
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That is nowhere near a distressed market.
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But it is a very different environment from the bidding-war insanity buyers dealt with a few years ago.
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More inventory can mean:
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More choices.
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More time.
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More price reductions.
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More seller credits.
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And less pressure to make a reckless offer.
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The Associated Press reported that roughly 21% of September listings had price reductions. AP News
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That does not mean every seller is desperate.
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Most are not.
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But it does mean more sellers are acknowledging reality.
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III. SELLERS STILL HAVE ONE BIG ADVANTAGE: THEY ARE NOT FORCED TO SELL
This is why I do not expect a massive nationwide price collapse.
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The Wall Street Journal pointed out that even though there are far more sellers than buyers nationally, most homeowners are not under financial pressure.
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Many have significant equity.
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Delinquencies remain relatively low.
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And a large percentage of owners still have very favorable mortgage rates. The Wall Street Journal
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So instead of slashing the price, many sellers can simply say:
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“No thanks. I’ll wait.”
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That puts a floor under prices in many markets.
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And it explains why the median existing-home price still reached $417,500 in September — a record for the month. Reuters
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So yes, buyers have more leverage.
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But leverage is not the same thing as control.
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IV. THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES MAY BE IN THE HOMES OTHER BUYERS SKIP
This is where I think smart buyers can win.
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The most desirable house in the best neighborhood, priced perfectly, may still get multiple offers.
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That has not disappeared.
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But the home that has been sitting for 30, 45 or 60 days?
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Different conversation.
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The listing with a recent price reduction?
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Different conversation.
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The seller who already bought another home?
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Different conversation.
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The property with cosmetic issues but solid bones?
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Different conversation.
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That is where financing strategy can become powerful.
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Instead of asking only for another $10,000 off the price, we can look at whether that same money would help more as:
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A closing-cost credit.
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A temporary buydown.
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A permanent rate buydown.
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Or another allowable seller concession.
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Sometimes the best negotiation is not the lowest price.
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It is the lowest effective cost to own the home.
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V. HIGHER RATES ARE CREATING THE NEGOTIATING POWER
Here is the irony.
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Mortgage rates around the 7% range are keeping many buyers on the sidelines. Recent reporting put average 30-year mortgage rates around 7.4%, near the highest level in almost three years. Reuters
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That is painful for affordability.
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But it is also exactly why active buyers have more negotiating power.
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Fewer buyers means less competition.
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Less competition means sellers may have to listen.
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So the buyer who is fully approved, understands the payment, and is comfortable moving forward may be in a much better position than they realize.
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I would not buy a home simply because “rates might fall later.”
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That is speculation.
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But if the payment works today and the seller is willing to negotiate today, that is real.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
September gave us a very interesting housing market.
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Sales finally rose.
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Inventory reached the highest level since 2019.
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Price reductions became more common.
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But home prices still held up because most sellers are not distressed.
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That means this is not a crash.
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It is a negotiation market.
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And for buyers who can afford the payment, that can create opportunities.
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Do not ask only:
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“Are home prices falling?”
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Ask:
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“How motivated is THIS seller?”
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“How long has THIS property been sitting?”
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“What concessions might THIS transaction support?”
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And:
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“What financing structure gives me the best overall deal?”
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The national housing market may still look frustrating.
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But real estate is bought one property at a time.
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And some of those individual properties are becoming much more negotiable.
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ABOUT MICHAEL BELFOR
Michael Belfor is a Branch Manager and Loan Originator with American Pacific Mortgage, bringing approximately 24 years of mortgage lending experience.
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An APM President's Club and Top 1% originator since 2017, Michael helps homebuyers, homeowners, and real estate investors navigate conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, Non-QM, DSCR, TIC, condo, construction and other mortgage financing solutions.
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Michael Belfor | American Pacific Mortgage
Direct: 415-233-4235 | Orange County: 949-577-6449⠀
Website: www.mikebelfor.com
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Home Sales Rose and Inventory Hit a 7-Year High — What Buyers Should Know
September home sales rose 1.5% while inventory climbed to the highest level since 2019. Learn why buyers may have more negotiating power even as home prices remain elevated.
housing market October 2026, home inventory 2026, seller concessions, home price reductions, California homebuyer strategy, buyer negotiating power
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