San Jose Listings Jump 25%; San Francisco Sales Jump 9.5%; The Bay Area Is Splitting in Two
If someone tells you what “the Bay Area housing market” is doing right now, my first question would be:
Which part?
Because August produced two numbers that almost seem like they belong to different markets.
New listings in San Jose jumped 25.5% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, San Francisco home sales increased 9.5% year over year — the largest increase among the major metros Redfin tracked.
Same Bay Area.
Very different story.
And for buyers, sellers and agents, that difference matters.
I. SAN JOSE HAS MORE HOMES HITTING THE MARKET
San Jose had the largest year-over-year increase in new listings among the major U.S. metros Redfin analyzed in August.
New listings were up 25.5%, while total active listings were up 17.7% from a year earlier.
That is meaningful.
More inventory can mean more choice.
More choice can mean buyers have a little more time to compare properties instead of feeling like they have to jump on the first decent house they see.
But here is the weird part.
San Jose is not suddenly cheap.
Its median sale price was still around $1.5 million in August, even though that was about 2% below the prior year.
So buyers may have more inventory without necessarily having dramatically better affordability.
That distinction matters.
More homes for sale does not automatically mean homes are affordable.
II. SAN FRANCISCO IS DOING ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
Then there is San Francisco.
Home sales increased 9.5% year over year in August.
Median prices were up 7.5%, to roughly $1.6 million.
And only about 30% of homes sold below their original asking price, the lowest share among the major markets Redfin tracked.
Compare that with the national market, where 59.5% of homes sold below their original list price.
That is a massive difference.
National headline:
“Most homes are selling below asking.”
San Francisco reality:
Not so fast.
This is exactly why I do not love national housing headlines when someone is trying to buy a specific property in California.
Your market might behave nothing like the headline.
III. EVEN THE LIST PRICE DOESN’T ALWAYS TELL YOU MUCH
This is especially important in the Bay Area.
A home listed at $1.4 million is not necessarily “worth” $1.4 million.
It could sell for less.
It could sell for $1.55 million.
It could have been deliberately priced low to create competition.
It could sit because the seller overshot the market.
The number on Zillow or the MLS is the asking price.
It is not an appraisal.
It is not automatically market value.
And it definitely is not a guarantee of what the seller will accept.
That means buyers need to look at:
Comparable sales.
Days on market.
Offer activity.
Property condition.
Appraisal risk.
And, importantly, how the property itself affects the financing.
IV. THE PROPERTY CAN MATTER AS MUCH AS THE BORROWER
This is the part I deal with constantly.
A buyer can have excellent credit, plenty of income and plenty of assets — and still have a financing problem because of the property.
That happens with:
TICs.
Non-warrantable condos.
Condos with insurance issues.
HOA litigation.
2–4 unit properties.
Properties with unusual construction or condition issues.
Short-term rentals.
Investment properties where the rent does not support the expected financing.
That is why I like looking at unusual properties before the offer whenever possible.
Sometimes the smartest call is not simply:
“Can my buyer qualify?”
It is:
“Can this property qualify?”
Those are two completely different questions.
V. BUYERS SHOULD USE THE MARKET THEY ACTUALLY HAVE
If you are shopping somewhere with increasing inventory, use that.
Take the extra time to compare.
Look at homes that have been sitting.
Ask whether there is room for seller credits.
Evaluate whether a price reduction or financing concession creates more value.
But if you are shopping in a competitive pocket of San Francisco, Marin, Oakland, San Jose or elsewhere in the Bay Area, the strategy may be completely different.
You may need:
A stronger preapproval.
Full TBD underwriting.
A shorter financing timeline.
More certainty around the property before making the offer.
The strategy should follow the actual market — not the national headline.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Bay Area is not one housing market.
San Jose can have listings jump more than 25% while San Francisco simultaneously sees some of the strongest sales growth in the country.
Both can be true.
So buyers should stop asking:
“Is this a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?”
A better question is:
“What is happening with this property, in this neighborhood, at this price point?”
Then build the financing strategy around that answer.
Because in California real estate, being right about the national housing market does not help much if you are wrong about the house you are actually trying to buy.
About Michael Belfor
Michael Belfor is a Branch Manager and Loan Originator with approximately 24 years of mortgage experience.
He has been recognized in American Pacific Mortgage’s President’s Club and among the company’s Top 1% producers since 2017.
Michael works with homebuyers, homeowners, real estate investors and real estate professionals on conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, down-payment assistance, self-employed and Non-QM financing, DSCR/investment loans, TICs, condos, renovation financing and other complex mortgage scenarios.
San Jose Listings Surge While San Francisco Home Sales Jump
San Jose listings jumped 25.5% while San Francisco home sales rose 9.5%. See what the split Bay Area housing market means for buyers and financing strategy
Bay Area housing market 2026, San Jose housing market, San Francisco housing market, Bay Area mortgage, TIC financing, condo financing
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