The Fed Is Holding... But for How Long?

Yesterday’s Fed meeting came and went with no rate change, as expected. But buried in Powell’s remarks was a shift in tone: “We’re not there yet on inflation, but we’re getting closer.”

Translation?

A rate cut is coming — just not yet.

For the mortgage world, that means continued pressure on the 10-Year Treasury, which has been bouncing between 4.15% and 4.30% this week. The market’s trying to price in future cuts, but it won’t fully commit until the data forces the Fed’s hand.

Here’s where it gets interesting:

• If PCE data this week shows softening inflation

• And job growth slows in tomorrow’s BLS report

• Then we could finally see the 10-Year yield break lower

  
  

That’s when mortgage rates would follow — not gradually, but quickly. And that’s why we’re positioning clients now.

Buyers don’t need to chase the bottom. They need a plan in place before rates move. If you or your clients are rate-sensitive, let's set a strike point and stay ready. Because when it drops, it’ll happen fast.