The Market’s Calm Is Only on the Surface

It’s Monday morning, and the market feels… calm.

No big headlines. No shock reports. No Fed meetings this week.

But under the surface, there’s movement — and it’s the kind that matters.

What We’re Watching This Week

• 10-Year Treasury: Still hovering above 4.20% after last week’s bump from the bond auction and tariff headlines.

• Mortgage-Backed Securities: Pricing has steadied but isn’t recovering yet — meaning rate sheets are likely to stay in their current range.

• Upcoming Data: This week’s releases are lighter, but next week’s CPI and Fed commentary could create another short-lived window for improvement.

This is a “watch and be ready” market — nothing may happen today, but the setup for next week is already forming.

Why Short Windows Keep Winning

In 2024, we saw multiple instances where rates dipped for just a few days before bouncing back. The same thing has happened in 2025 — including last week’s drop that allowed us to lock 12 refinance loans right before rates turned higher.

These are not months-long rallies. They’re quick moves — and if you’re not prepared, you miss them.

The Strategy That Works Right Now

The market rewards preparation, not prediction.That means:

• Having your file ready before a rate window opens

• Knowing your strike rate so you can lock without hesitation

• Using programs that close fast — DSCR, self-employed bank statement loans, lender-paid buydowns, and even down payment assistance — all in 15 days or

  
  

Bottom Line

The market may look quiet today, but the conditions that create short-lived opportunities are already building.

If you want to capture the next one, the time to prepare isn’t when it happens — it’s now.