Government Reopens, Labor Weakens, and Markets Wait for Missing Data

With the federal government officially reopening, markets are now turning their attention to the backlog of economic data that was delayed during the shutdown.

Several major reports — including the monthly Jobs Report and the Consumer Price Index — were paused during the closure, leaving investors to navigate several weeks without the usual labor and inflation updates. As a result, mortgage markets have traded in a tight, stable range while waiting for clarity.

Even without the official numbers, the picture coming from private-sector data tells a consistent story: the job market is slowing, and the economy is losing momentum.

Private Labor Data Shows Clear Signs of Weakness

Since the shutdown prevented the release of official employment reports, investors leaned on private companies that track job trends. Those readings showed broad signs of softening:

• Job losses increased across several private surveys.

• Weekly layoffs and job cuts rose sharply.

• Continuing unemployment claims reached their highest level since 2019.

• Job openings slid to the lowest point in nearly four years.

Revelio Labs, ADP, Indeed, and Challenger all showed a slowdown in hiring, more companies reducing staff, and fewer available positions for job seekers. When the delayed government reports are eventually released, they will also begin to reflect furloughed government workers — which may amplify the weakness already seen.

Fed Messaging Remains Unsettled

Federal Reserve officials offered mixed commentary this week. Some remained focused on inflation risks and pushed back against the idea of near-term easing. Others pointed out that the neutral interest rate — the level where policy is neither restrictive nor stimulating — may be lower than previously believed.

Because of the lack of official data and the split messaging from Fed leaders, markets remain cautious and uncertain about the upcoming policy path. The timing of the next potential shift will depend heavily on what the delayed employment and inflation reports show once they are released.

Bonds and Mortgage Markets Hold Steady

With no major economic releases, mortgage bonds have moved within a narrow band. Technical levels are holding steady, with support intact and resistance preventing any major breakout. The 10-year Treasury is also trading near important technical levels, waiting for the next catalyst.

Several major financial institutions have continued to build positions in longer-term bonds, which is often a sign that they expect yields to move lower over time. But without fresh government data, markets are simply not ready to commit to a stronger direction.

What This Means for Homebuyers and Homeowners

The lack of data has created a rare period of stability. Movements have been small, and markets appear comfortable holding their ground until the delayed reports begin to surface. For buyers, that means fewer surprises and more predictable planning. For homeowners watching the market for refinance opportunities, this calm period offers time to prepare documents and get positioned for the next meaningful move.

Once the missing September and October labor and inflation data is released, markets will have the information they need to determine the direction heading into the end of the year.

If you’d like to review your goals, run updated numbers, or position yourself for the next opportunity, I’m here to help.