Mortgage Rates Finally Stopped Rising; 7 Straight Weeks of Increases Ended; Why That Still Doesn’t Mean “Wait to Buy”
After seven straight weeks of increases, mortgage rates finally stopped climbing.
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Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 7.40% this week, unchanged from the prior week and ending a seven-week streak of increases.
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That is not low.
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It is not especially comfortable.
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But after the sharp move higher since August, even a pause matters.
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And there is an important distinction here:
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A rate that stops rising is not the same thing as a rate that is falling.
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Still, stabilization is usually the first thing I want to see before a market can improve.
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I. SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEKS OF INCREASES FINALLY ENDED
Mortgage rates have been moving almost relentlessly higher since late summer.
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Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week.
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That ended a seven-week streak of increases.
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For perspective, the same survey showed rates around 6.65% in August.
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That is a major change in a short period of time.
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For a $750,000 loan, even a move of roughly three-quarters of a percentage point can materially change the monthly payment.
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That is why so many buyers who were comfortable in August suddenly feel stretched in October.
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The pause is welcome.
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But one week does not make a trend.
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II. THE BOND MARKET IS STILL VOLATILE
Mortgage rates are not set directly by the Federal Reserve.
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They are influenced heavily by longer-term bond yields and mortgage-backed securities.
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This week, the 10-year Treasury moved around as investors reacted to inflation concerns, economic data and stock-market volatility.
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At times, money moved into Treasury bonds as investors looked for safety.
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That helped yields pull back.
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But the bond market is still dealing with several major pressures:
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Persistent inflation.
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Higher energy costs.
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Federal borrowing.
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Geopolitical risk.
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And uncertainty around future Fed policy.
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That is why I would not interpret one stable week as:
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“Rates have peaked.”
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Maybe they have.
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Maybe they have not.
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The market still has work to do.
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III. HIGHER RATES ARE HURTING DEMAND
Mortgage applications declined again last week.
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That marked the sixth consecutive weekly decline in application activity.
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This is the part of the market buyers actually feel.
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When the payment rises, people stop shopping.
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Some reduce their price range.
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Some decide to wait.
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Some renters renew their lease.
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Some buyers simply disappear.
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That hurts transaction volume.
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But it also changes negotiating power.
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The buyer who is still active today may have fewer competitors than the same buyer had a few months ago.
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That can create opportunities that are easy to miss if all you are watching is the interest rate.
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IV. THIS IS WHY “WAIT UNTIL RATES DROP” CAN BACKFIRE
I understand the instinct.
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A buyer looks at a 7%+ mortgage rate and says:
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“I’ll wait until rates are better.”
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That could work.
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But here is the problem:
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What happens if rates fall and thousands of other buyers have the exact same idea?
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Competition can return.
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Seller concessions can disappear.
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Price reductions can shrink.
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And the property that was negotiable today may not be negotiable anymore.
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That does not mean anyone should rush into a home they cannot afford.
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The payment has to work today.
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But the decision should not be based only on guessing where mortgage rates will be six months from now.
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Because you are not buying an interest rate.
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You are buying a home and financing it.
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Those are two separate decisions.
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V. THE PAYMENT IS ONLY ONE PART OF THE NEGOTIATION
Suppose a property has been sitting for 45 days.
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The seller already reduced the price.
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There are no competing offers.
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That may give us room to negotiate.
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Now the conversation becomes:
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Do we ask for another price reduction?
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Do we ask for closing-cost credits?
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Could the seller fund a temporary buydown?
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Would a permanent rate buydown make more sense?
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Would preserving the buyer’s cash be more valuable than reducing the price?
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The correct answer depends on the buyer.
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This is why I keep saying:
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Do not negotiate the house without negotiating the financing.
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In a slower market, those two strategies should work together.
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VI. DO NOT BUILD THE DEAL AROUND A FUTURE REFINANCE
There is one thing I would not do.
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I would not make an unaffordable payment work by telling myself:
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“I’ll just refinance next year.”
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Maybe rates improve.
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Maybe they do not.
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Maybe the property appraises differently.
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Maybe income changes.
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Maybe underwriting guidelines change.
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A future refinance should be a bonus.
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Not the reason the purchase works.
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If the payment is comfortable today and a future refinance later improves it, great.
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That is a strong position.
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If the payment only works because we are assuming rates will drop?
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That is speculation.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
Mortgage rates finally stopped rising this week after seven straight weekly increases.
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That is encouraging.
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But 7.40% is still a difficult rate environment for many buyers.
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The bigger opportunity may be what those higher rates are doing to the housing market.
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Fewer buyers.
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More inventory.
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More price reductions.
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More seller concessions.
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And more negotiating room on certain properties.
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So I would not ask only:
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“When will mortgage rates fall?”
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I would ask:
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“What can I negotiate today?”
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“Does the payment work today?”
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“What seller credits are available?”
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And:
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“What happens if rates eventually improve?”
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You do not need to perfectly time the mortgage market.
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You need a purchase and financing structure that makes sense now.
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If rates improve later, we can deal with that later.
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ABOUT MICHAEL BELFOR
Michael Belfor is a Branch Manager and Loan Originator with American Pacific Mortgage, bringing approximately 24 years of mortgage lending experience.
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An APM President's Club and Top 1% originator since 2017, Michael helps homebuyers, homeowners, and real estate investors navigate conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, Non-QM, DSCR, TIC, condo, construction and other mortgage financing solutions.
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Michael Belfor | American Pacific Mortgage
Direct: 415-233-4235 | Orange County: 949-577-6449⠀
Website: www.mikebelfor.com⠀
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Mortgage Rates Stop Rising After 7 Weeks — Should Buyers Wait?
Mortgage rates held at 7.40% after seven straight weeks of increases. Learn why stabilization matters and why buyers should consider negotiation opportunities instead of trying to perfectly time rates.
mortgage rates October 2026, mortgage rates 7.40, California homebuyer strategy, seller credits, mortgage rate buydown, housing market October 2026
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